Method
Assumption ledger
Every assumption holding up a number on this dashboard, with its basis and what happens if it is wrong.
Assumptions logged
12
Twelve-week shape, pilot window
High sensitivity
4
Twelve-week shape, pilot window
Validated against data
7
Twelve-week shape, pilot window
Judgement only
5
Twelve-week shape, pilot window
The ledger
| Assumption | Value used | Basis | Sensitivity | If wrong |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage close probabilities | Historic 2 quarters | Observed | High | Forecast moves ±₹18 Cr |
| Attribution window | 30 days | Judgement | High | Channel mix shifts materially |
| Monsoon absorption dip | −6% | 2 years of data | Medium | Q3 projection over-states |
| Deals over 60 days halved | 0.5× weight | Judgement | Medium | Forecast over-states by ₹7 Cr |
| Net yield deductions | 0.9 pts | Observed | Medium | Investor guidance changes |
| Developer launch dates | As committed | Partner statement | High | 482-unit closing stock wrong |
| Referral booking rate | 3.6% | Small sample, n=28 | Low | Referral case weakens |
| NRI cycle length | 64 days | Observed, n=18 | Low | Desk staffing model shifts |
How to use this page
Argue with the assumption, not the output
Most disagreements about a number on this dashboard are really disagreements about a line in this table. Start here.
Five assumptions are judgement
They are marked as such rather than dressed as data. Judgement is legitimate; hiding it is not.
How to read this page
Method · Assumption ledger
Window
Rolling 90 days of the India Realty pilot, refreshed nightly at 02:00 IST.
Sources
Aiera call logs, WhatsApp Business API, CRM stages, Meta and portal spend exports.
Joins
Every number is joined to a booking where one exists, not to leads, so cost lines stay comparable.
Limits
Ninety days is short for a ₹1.5 Cr purchase. Late-window cohorts are still open, so treat conversion as a floor.